![]() Molnar and Eisen created one of Australia’s most impressive businesses. Given Square/Block’s trajectory, the near certainty that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates and general popping of the tech bubble, it’s likely the value of the combined entity will continue to fall, with Afterpay’s eventual value potentially dropping well below $10 billion.īut don’t confuse speculator irrationality with good management. Other BNPL businesses have also seen their share prices hit since August: Zip (down 41%) Openpay (down 39%) Splitit (down 46%). Had the bubble stayed inflated a few more months they would have collected more than $2.5 billion each, with neither appearing to have escrow restrictions. The share price fall was the result of the tech sector in the United States (and to an extent Australia) falling from its bubble-level highs ( which was always an inevitability). If anything, it shows just how smart Molnar and Eisen were in selling to Square/Block last August. He remained confident that Zip could hold its ’“net transaction margin”, the key earnings driver (revenue from retailers and customer fees minus the cost of debt funding and bad debts).You'll also receive messages on behalf of our partners. We have had to pause, to reflect and change course accordingly.” “We are long-term owners and long-term operators of the business, but certainly, we feel the pain with our shareholders, particularly retail shareholders, and staff who are also shareholders. “It looks violent and vicious but as leaders of the business we do have to look around us, to what is happening the with the stock and change course accordingly,” he said. With many Zip staff paid in shares and with scrip used to finance its global expansion, Mr Diamond said it had been tough on morale. Mr Diamond said he was confident of hitting the promised synergies. He said the two companies had been in discussions since last July, well before markets started panicking. Sezzle’s Mr Youakim said the deal was all about getting more scale, to allow it to sign up more retailers. One banker said this smacked of desperation, while Macquarie described the deal as “merger out of necessity rather than one to create long-term shareholder value”. “We have to be able to demonstrate to the market an ability to move up and down within tolerance levels through the credit cycles,” Mr Diamond said.Īnalysts and investors have questioned the logic of the deal, after Zip raised equity at a discount to buy Sezzle at a premium. As a result of what we are seeing in the US and Australia, we have adjusted approval levels and limits for existing customers - we have taken the decisive action.” Moving through credit cyclesīuy now, pay later sceptics say it is a new sector that had not proven itself through a full economic cycle. ![]() “We did that at the onset of COVID in 2020, adjusting the portfolio to respond to changing conditions in real time to restrict first-time customer volume. “We have tempered growth expectations, so we can improve our bad debt figures,” Mr Diamond told The Australian Financial Review. In its half-year results posted three weeks ago, Zip reported bad debts plus expected credit losses had increased fivefold to $148.3 million, 3.3 per cent of sales or almost half its revenue of $302 million. Mr Diamond said Zip started reducing credit limits for existing customers and raising the bar for first-time users of the platform late last year. “Markets are signalling they don’t like BNPL risk – very high bad debts with increasing interest rates and inflation are all no-go zones for investors,” independent payment analyst Grant Halverson said. It has responded by tightening lending criteria in a bid to ease market fears that higher interest rates will not only lift funding costs but credit losses as well. The evisceration of technology and payment stocks has triggered a fall in Zip’s ASX market cap from more than $6 billion a year ago to $1 billion this week. Zip co-founder Larry Diamond: “We have had to pause, to reflect and change course accordingly.” Dominic Lorrimerįor Zip, there have also been concerns that Mr Diamond – who owns just less than 10 per cent of the company – and Sezzle boss Charlie Youakim will not achieve promised synergies or hit their target for the combined businesses to become profitable in 2024. The rout – which has included a 30 per cent slide since a merger with Sezzle was announced in late February – was triggered by a savage change in global sentiment towards technology sector growth stocks as interest rates start to rise. The market’s shellacking of the buy now, pay later sector has been violent and Zip co-founder Larry Diamond says he feels the pain of retail investors and staff holding Zip stock that has nosedived by 80 per cent over the past year.
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